Data centers could spike regional electricity costs by 57 percent

By: Margaret Harding McGill 

Date: June 4, 2026

Rapidly growing electricity demand from data centers and cryptocurrency mining could push U.S. power sector carbon emissions up by as much as 28% and spike regional electricity costs by up to 57% by 2030, according to a new research paper from Carnegie Mellon University.

Why it matters: The explosion of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency mining is placing unprecedented strain on the U.S. energy grid. Without proactive intervention, this demand surge will force aging coal and natural gas plants to run harder and longer, driving up wholesale energy costs across the country and increasing emissions.

Catch up quick: Projections indicate that, depending on future demand and operational practices, U.S. data center electricity use could make up 6.7% to 12% of total forecasted U.S. electricity consumption by 2028.

Action: Using an energy system optimization model, the team analyzed how projected data center and crypto demand through 2030 will influence electricity generation, emissions, and infrastructure costs. The researchers modeled power sector capacity and dispatch decisions across 26 interconnected U.S. power regions, testing scenarios based on natural gas prices, federal policies, and the geographic distribution of new facilities. This research was a collaborative effort by Carnegie Mellon University, North Carolina State University, the University of Pittsburgh, and the University of Toronto.

Findings: National average electricity costs could rise between 6% and 29%, with price spikes reaching up to 57% in data center hubs like Northern Virginia.

• Data center and cryptocurrency demand could increase 2030 power sector CO₂ emissions by up to 28% relative to a future with no data center growth, driven by increased generation from natural gas and coal plants.
• The grid will rely heavily on increased generation from natural gas and legacy coal plants to meet the new demand. In regions like PJM West and the Carolinas, aging coal units will see increased utilization rather than retirement.
• States with strict emissions caps (like Virginia under the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative) will meet their data center demand by importing coal-fired power from neighboring, non-participating regions, effectively exporting their emissions.

Policy takeaways: Reinstating federal subsidies, such as the Production (45Y) and Investment (48E) Tax Credits, shifts the grid away from fossil fuels, significantly buffering both the cost and emissions impacts of data center growth. Natural gas generation, which provides 70% of the new data center-driven generation in the absence of federal energy incentives, drops to a 41% contribution as a larger share of demand is met by wind (29%) and solar power (15%).